Airlines got it wrong, really wrong

Greetings travel friends,

Jeri’s heading out tomorrow on her first trip of the summer to check out the new Sandals resort in Curacao. And, based on last weekend's headlines and the interviews we’ve done with aviation experts, we’re a little nervous about how it’s going to go down.

Airline reliability has hit new lows this year, airline industry consultant Bob Mann of R.W. Mann & Co. told Travel Essential in an exclusive interview. "This is the least reliable period of air travel in my memory," he said.

And while spring storms contributed to some issues, he says the reality is that airlines simply got it wrong. They overpromised flights, didn't account for pilot shortages and then had to pull back flight schedules by unheard-of levels – with Jet Blue's 10% trim representing the extreme.

Indeed, every week it seems it’s the same old story across North America and Europe, where airports are just a single storm or technological glitch away from a major meltdown. Late last week, for instance, a baggage system problem transformed London Heathrow (LHR) into a sea of suitcases. A few weeks ago, an e-gate crash created a human logjam there.

Here at home, U.S.-based airlines canceled more than 3,000 flights over the Juneteenth holiday weekend, or about 3% of their schedules, according to flight tracker FlightAware. The worst? Delta Air Lines, which canceled 8% of its flights, prompting even a Fortune 100 C-suite executive from Procter & Gamble to express his outrage on Twitter.

“I am deeply disappointed & disgusted by @Delta’s recent changes. It’s the 3rd time I got an email saying “Your upcoming flight was impacted by a flight cancellation” - I AM IN ANOTHER COUNTRY.. You can’t just push my flight a day back and act like it’s nothing,” wrote Benjamin Spiegel, the chief digital officer for P&G's beauty division who also shared this image of his Delta schedule along with his tweet.

Some of the weekend cancellations for Delta were caused by weather. Jeri’s flying American Airlines to Curacao, which will take her through Dallas-Fort Worth, a major hub prone to summer storm delays.

Traveling to Curacao from her home in Albuquerque requires a full three flights each way, which – in what is promising to be the summer of air travel hell – presents a triple threat for getting canceled or delayed along the way.

In a bad sign, AA was already emailing her on Monday to ask if her plans were flexible. (No, they really aren’t, because it’s supposed to be a quick trip.) Hopefully she’ll be posting pretty beach photos rather than airport horror stories. So stay tuned. We’ll let you know next week how it all goes down. And of course, follow us on Twitter for live updates.

In the meantime, we’ve been gathering intelligence about where to go and how best to protect yourself if you’re still making summer travel plans.

TE takeaways for summer 2022:

• Fly later in the month – If you haven’t already booked flights, consider traveling early in the month to reduce your risk of being affected by the pilot shortage. Why? Pilots can only fly a certain number of hours each month, Mann reminds us. That means airlines are more likely to run out of available pilot hours later each month, an issue that is expected to be especially major theme of summer travel.

• Buy your ticket direct from the airline – If you book through a third party, changes usually have to be made through that supplier. That means if you get to the airport to find that your flights have been delayed or rerouted, the ticket agents at the counter might not be able to help you if you are not happy with their proposed changes and want to make more complex adjustments. And while most airlines have waived change fees, some third parties will still charge for revisions.

• Catch the first flight of the day – Once weather, mechanical issues or staffing shortages cause delays, it creates a domino effect that worsens as the day wears on. Believe us, it’s worth getting up at 4 a,m.

• Check your hotel's cancellation policy – If you encounter a day-of-travel delay, it’s usually too late to get a refund on your booking. That said, always reach out to your hotel to explain if an airline issue causes a last-minute cancellation. They have their own brands to worry about, and want to be responsive to forces beyond travelers' control. Remember: OTA policies may differ from hotel chain policies.

• If you're going on a cruise, give yourself a cushion – Most travel advisors and cruise line representatives recommend that you arrive the night before your sailing in case you miss your flight or it’s delayed.

• Buy travel insurance, but read the fine print – Travel insurance policies are not created equal. Travel advisor Suzy Schreiner at Blue Azure Vacations told us that one of her clients learned the hard way: they bought insurance for a cruise through the line, only to discover after missing it due to a cancelled flight that a "flight cancellation" was not a covered reason.

• Speak up – Know who to Tweet, write and call if your vacation is ruined. Social media has proven to be a powerful tool for getting an airline’s attention when the hold times are hours long. Here’s the site to file a complaint with the U.S. Department of Transportation, which oversees the airline passenger experience.

• Always load smartphone apps for the companies you are traveling with – This gives you extra tools like chat rooms and the ability to make changes on your own through the app rather than waiting for an available agent.

• Seriously, be prepared to dial a phone number – We rarely trust the alternative route that we receive from airlines' AI-powered chatbot, which travel suppliers are increasingly "hiring" to save money on call center personnel. We almost always call the 800 number to talk to a human to check for a better route. Still, you might face a long hold time. So know the best number for your airline and be sure to call right away to get in the queue in case there are long hold times. While you're waiting on hold or in the customer service line at the airport (or both), you can keep trying to work things out on the app.

• Pack your patience! – This is No. 1 from our June 1 Top 10 tips.

Opposing forces at play

Last week, we told you how travel industry enthusiasm over the looong-awaited decision by the Biden Administration to drop its Covid testing requirement for inbound travelers was being tempered by the stock market crash.

So how is that playing out?

“Never in my life have I seen such opposing forces,” Alex Sharpe, president and CEO of Signature Travel Network of travel agencies, told Travel Essential. “Pent-up demand like never before after not traveling for two years, but faced with inflation and more specifically high airline costs (and changes).

“Many are still traveling, but we haven’t yet seen the avalanche of business we hoped, although it remains steady with increased demand for Europe."

Travel advisor Suzy Schreiner told us that despite economic worries, she has seen a steady uptick in travel inquiries over the past week, mostly to tried-and-true places like Europe and the Caribbean. While a few clients have voiced concerns about how the economy will impact their pocketbooks, they aren’t changing their plans, she said.

“They’re still booking, and booking big trips,” Schreiner told us. “I think Covid really encouraged people to think more in the present.”

The latest batch of airline ticket sales data from airline industry groups including IATA back that, showing sales from the U.S. for Europe travel have continued to increase over the past several weeks. By contrast, sales out of Europe for U.S. travel have appeared to plateaued.

Still, the Washington Post, citing credit card data, reports that more Americans are beginning to hold off on booking vacations and other big ticket items.

And airline analyst Michael Boyd of Boyd Group International predicts the bedlam at European airports in recent weeks will scare people off.

“They want a vacation. Not chaos,” Boyd wrote on LinkedIn Monday. “The major reason for this is that you cannot fly to or within the E.U. with any certainty of not getting stranded in some mismanaged major airport meltdown.”

Rudi Schreiner, co-founder of the luxury river cruise line AmaWaterways, said his company has seen a slight uptick in bookings since the testing requirement was lifted, “but nothing to really brag about yet.”

Most people have already made summer vacation plans, Schreiner said, and it’s simply too soon to say how all the opposing forces will impact fall and winter travel.

The good news for travelers?

There’s plenty of inventory for last-minute summer trips. AmaWaterways, for instance, in normal times runs above 90% of capacity. Right now, Schreiner told us, his ships are sailing at about 60% to 70%, except on the Nile, which he said is sold out.

And for travelers looking for a closer escape, our friend Christina Jelski at Travel Weekly reports that unlike the last two summers, when most people were staying domestic, you might still be able to find a room or condo in popular Western mountain destinations like Colorado, Utah, California, Wyoming, Montana and Idaho.

But don’t expect bargains. Despite availability in the mountains, rates are up 5.9% over last year. And reputable brands like AmaWaterways don't want to dilute their brands by offering discounts below what already-booked customers have paid.

In other news:

Good news for Crystal Cruises fans. The defunct brand is back! Luxury tour operator Abercrombie & Kent confirmed today that it has bought the brand and two ocean liners, the Crystal Symphony and Crystal Serenity, and will resume sailing them in 2023 under the beloved Crystal brand after they undergo extensive renovations. According to Seatrade Cruise News, A&K bought the ships at auction for a combined $128 million. As for Crystal's river line? Travel Weekly's Nicole Edenendo reports there's not much interest from other European operators for the Crystal river fleet.

Watch out: Change fees are coming back. Our friend @GaryLeff reports that American is reinstating the charges on some flights. “Specifically you can expect many international fares for trips originating outside the United States to come with change fees,” he wrote. That includes Americans who are purchasing one-way tickets to another country and one-way travel back, he said. We knew the pandemic reprieve on those pesky, (and pricey!), fees was way too good to last. And once one major carrier makes that kind of move, expect all to follow suit.

Bye, bye Trump. The former Washington, D.C., Trump Hotel is going to become one of Hilton's luxury Waldorf Astoria hotels and the Washington Post reports that acclaimed chef Jose Andres is finally going to open his restaurant in it. If you're a political junkie, we recommend reading the piece for the great backstory on what inspired Andres to open a restaurant in the area years ago. For hotel junkies, you may already know this deal will give Hilton a second luxury hotel and a second luxury restaurant in the District. You may recall that back in May, we dined at the Hilton Conrad hotel's sumptuous Estuary restaurant, which is helmed by young Chef de Cuisine Ria Montes.

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